I attended today the Centerstate CEO’s (Corporation for Economic Opportunity) Economic Forecast Luncheon, with the keynote speaker being noted economist Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Hugh Johnson Advisors. It was a very interesting and entertaining presentation, which included a historical comparison to the banking crisis of 1907. In between a couple of very interesting comments on the Fed, he told the group the following:
· The conditions in the economy that accompany a recovery are all in place
· Leading indicators for the economy are rising. We are early in the economic recovery which should continue through 2012.
· By 2012, the economy should recover 7.0 million of the 8.3 million jobs lost in the recession.
· Short term interest rates will start to rise late in 2011
· Stock prices should rise 7.8 percent annually for the next two years
· While we are in a recovery mode, the recovery will be anemic by post-war standards as a result of the drag caused by real estate and the housing situation